In-depth Analysis of Tin Price Increases in 2025-1

In-depth Analysis of Tin Price Increases in 2025-1

Global tin prices in 2025 exhibited a strong upward trend with fluctuations and record highs, showing significant gains throughout the year and becoming one of the strongest performing metals on the LME. The average price of LME March tin futures reached $34,086 per ton, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, peaking at $44,000 per ton. The average price of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's main tin contract was 273,932 yuan per ton, peaking at 350,000 yuan per ton, a new high in three and a half years. By the end of the year, LME tin prices had cumulatively increased by approximately 41%, while Shanghai tin prices had increased by 35.27%, with a price range of 242,000-332,000 yuan per ton, generally showing an N-shaped trend of "first rising, then falling, and then rising again."

I. Price Trend Stages

First Quarter: Strong Rise: Tight supply at the mining end gradually materialized at the smelting end. In mid-March, unrest in the Democratic Republic of Congo led to the shutdown of major tin mines, boosting market bullish sentiment. Shanghai tin prices rose to around 280,000 yuan, a 31% increase in the first quarter, topping the global commodity price increase list.

Second Quarter: Brief Correction: After the Qingming Festival holiday, all commodities experienced a decline, with tin prices under pressure. On April 15th, prices fell below the 260,000 yuan mark before rebounding.

Second Half: Oscillating Upward Trend: The Federal Reserve successively cut interest rates in September, late October, and mid-December. Easing of US-China tariff tensions and improved liquidity boosted tin prices, stabilizing them at high levels. Simultaneously, supply contracted rapidly. A sharp drop in Indonesian tin ingot exports in June, routine maintenance at smelting companies such as Yunnan Tin in September, and the Indonesian president's order to close some illegal tin mines in Bangka Belitung pushed tin prices above 300,000 yuan by the end of the year, continuing their upward trend.

II. Analysis of Core Driving Factors

(I) Supply Side: Multiple Constraints Lead to Structural Tight Balance (Core Background)

Frequent Supply Disruptions in Major Producing Countries

Indonesia, the world's second-largest tin producer (accounting for 23.0% of global supply), pursues a resource nationalism policy, favoring reduced tin ingot exports and the development of domestic deep-processing industries. Tin ingot exports plummeted in June, and at the end of the year, the president ordered the closure of some illegal tin mines in Bangka Belitung, resulting in compliant capacity release falling short of expectations. In Myanmar's Wa State, tin mines have experienced slow resumption of production due to policy adjustments, aging infrastructure, and high maintenance costs from previous shutdowns. Since the planned resumption in October, exports have still decreased by 20% year-on-year. The rainy season and Thailand's land transport ban have further hampered supply. Internal turmoil in the Democratic Republic of Congo has led to the shutdown of important tin mines, exacerbating global ore shortages.

Smelting Capacity Constrained

Domestic major smelting companies, such as Yunnan Tin, conducted routine maintenance in September, leading to a short-term decrease in capacity. The scarcity of global tin resources is evident, with a static exploitable lifespan of only 12-13 years. New capacity construction cycles are long, making it difficult to quickly fill the supply gap. Inventory Remains Low: Global visible inventories remain at healthy low levels, with LME and SHFE inventories at multi-year lows, increasing the risk of a short squeeze and supporting a rebound in tin prices.